May 2006 Box Office Predictions

Mission: Impossible III

Sure, Mission: Impossible III didn’t do quite as well as the box office in its opening weekend as every had anticipated but this isn’t Spider-Man, alright. Comparing the opening weekends of the first two films in the franchise to this one is ridiculous given that those two films opened on Memorial Day weekend, as opposed to the third feature which opened the first weekend of the summer. And need I remind everyone of Batman Begins which, like MI3, had a rather ‘disappointing’ opening weekend but went on to make nearly $200 million domestically. Give Abrams’s debut project some time. It is intelligent enough it should hold well in its second weekend.

Domestic Box Office - $180 million

Poseidon

Imagine the last hour of Titanic stretched over ninety minutes under the direction of a vastly inferior filmmaker. Disaster are decent moneymakers every now and then but eventually audiences will catch on and realize they can save themselves a few extra bucks by driving to the local Blockbuster and picking something off the shelf rather then waste time in line for practically the same thing. With less advertising then MI3 and no big-name stars to draw in the crowds, Poseidon should make less then $45 million its weekend or else I’ll eat my hat.

Opening Weekend - $39 million
Domestic Box Office - $150 million

Just My Luck

Not even Lindsay Lohan’s excessive partying and self-induced vomiting could make this romantic-comedy a disaster. True, it won’t break any box office records but who expected that? It should do decent business then be quickly forgotten. Like I said, a typical romantic-comedy.

Opening Weekend - $15 million
Domestic Box Office - $60 million

The Da Vinci Code

This one’s easy – Bomb! Just kidding. Though Cinderella Man was a vastly superior project then this feature film adaptation (it’s a decent story and all, though I have heard Angels and Demons was better, but being a history major and having grown up Roman Catholic the tremendous ‘leaps of faith’ it makes in terms of interpreting history, particularly in regards to the Catholic Church, bugs me), this should put Ron Howard back on track. The question remains whether it will be the biggest film of the summer like everyone is anticipating but it will at least gain its budget back.

Opening Weekend - $70 million
Domestic Box Office - $210 million

Over the Hedge

In a brilliant counter marketing move, Dreamworks intends on pumping enough money out of families with younger children before Disney and Pixar’s Cars opens up in mid-June. Like Madagascar last summer, the story will be rather flat and will likely be long forgotten by the end of the year, but it keeps the children distracted while their parents check out the more adult-oriented Da Vinci Code.

Opening Weekend - $40 million
Domestic Box Office - $180 million

An Inconvenient Truth

“Maybe I'll make a movie. A movie starring me. Then people will take me super serial”

Nah, I’m not going to make a prediction for this one. I just wanted to mock Al Gore.

X-Men: The Last Stand

I am disappointed this film has not been marketed nearly as much as the last one was, but that is not what I am really concerned about. The Phoenix Chronicles where Jean Grey becomes the Phoenix is a critical chapter in the X-Men mythology and having it placed in the hands of Brett Ratner has me on edge. Sure, he’s not the worst person they could have placed at the helm of this project (I can think of a whole lot worse – McG being on the top of the list) but I’d be more relieved if it were in more competent and consistent hands. Regardless, it should do good business, though its opening weekend won’t be nearly as successful as the last one.

Opening Weekend - $65 million
Domestic Box Office - $210 million